On Sunday, the selection committee released their tournament fields, deciding the destinies of 68 teams with dreams of dancing into early April.
Now the onus is on you college basketball fans to compete for big cash prizes, or just braggin’ rights, by playing analysts and filling out your tournament brackets to perfection.
Understanding that it’s pretty much impossible for one to be familiar with all 68 teams and their tendencies, unless you make a living doing so, Hardwood Diagnostic is providing you with all that you need to know to win BIG!
Numbers never lie:
1. Pick a #1 seed to win it all! 10 of the last 14 national champs were ranked at the top spot in their respective regions.
2. Anticipate this upset ! In five straight years, a 13 seed has beaten a 4 seed.
3. Resist the temptation! North Carolina has not defeated a team this season with an RPI in theTop 20. This leads many to believe that UNC’s lack of a regular season quality win will translate into the inability to compete late into the tournament. Don’t take a chance on them late into your brackets.
4. Since 2000, the Mountain West has the worst winning percentage among all conferences in college basketball. This year, their marquee representative is New Mexico (#3 seed in the West region).
5. Close but NO cigar! Florida went 0-6 this season in games decided by single digits. The storyline behind such a poor record in close contests is their lack of true star power to close out games. With the majority of games decided in the final minutes of tournament games, Florida’s inability may warrant you to re-evaluate their positioning on your bracket– if you have them going very deep.
6. How sweet it is ! In the last 13 years, there have been nine 12-seeds to make it to at least the Sweet 16. This year’s 12-seeds include California, Mississippi, Akron and Oregon. Which 12-seed do you think posses the biggest threat?
7. Glass half empty or half full? Miami has zero players that have played in a national championship game. This may lead many to think that they lack experience to win big games. However, their roster’s average age is 22 and their head coach had led an underwhelming George Mason team to a 2006 Final Four. Which approach will you take when evaluating this Miami team?
8. Gonzaga, the current #1 seed of the West region, hasn’t been past the Sweet 16 since 1999.
9. Don’t do it ! It’s understandable, you want to predict the big upset. But since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, no #16 has ever beaten a #1. Don’t bust your bracket anticipating the unlikely.
Remember
1. Basketball is a game of match-ups; Don’t believe your eyes!
It’s easy to pick Team A to advance in your bracket after watching Team A blow out Team B in the finale of conference play. The fact of the matter however, is that Team A isn’t facing Team B every game of the tournament. Team performances are relative because different teams present different match-ups, and those different match-ups allow for a bevy of advantages and disadvantages.
Typical example: “The Illini beat Gonzaga and Butler handily, so therefore we just don’t think either of those teams are that good, even though they just had bad nights against the Illini” (NYMag.com). Don’t let your eyes deceive you! Take in-season, uncharacteristic performances with a grain of salt.
2. Make the darling “selection” late!
You win BIG when you assume risks later in tournament player, because that’s when more points are allotted to you. Play it safe, to some extent, early and pave the way for upsets or darling picks to be made later in the tournament.
3. Trust the Las Vegas Odd Makers!
The most accurate predictor of brackets of this sort are crowd sourcing, which is the essence of what Vegas Odd Makers do. Louisville is Vegas’ tournament favorite while Miami and Gonzaga aren’t so favored.
Expert Picks:
-ESPN’s Final Four Picks (Seth Greenberg, Jay Bilas, Digger Phelps, Jay Williams and Dick Vitale)
-CBS Sports (Tournament predictions from CBS Sports expert college basketball panel)
-SB Nation (SB Nation’s bracket predictions; predict Louisville to win it all)
-NY Daily News (Daily News breaks down the West region)
-USA Today (USA Today’s expert 1st round selections)
Idia Ogala | Hardwood Diagnostics
Visit HardwoodDiagnostics.com for the most in depth and dynamic NBA coverage on the web.
